Meet the New Rivals, Same as the Old Ones: Ballots & Boundaries

Seasoned and well-known? Rejected and bruised? Political parties will get the answer the hard way as ex-congressional candidates bounce back for another run.

Already back for more is Colorado businessman Adam Frisch (D), vanquished by Rep. Lauren Boebert (R) by the tightest margin of the election: 546 votes.

His campaign had a noteworthy fund-raising quarter: $1.7 million, versus $764,000 for Boebert.

Photographers: Valerie Plesch/Bloomberg and Nathan Howard/Getty Images

On track for a rematch: Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) and Adam Frisch (D)

At least two of the five House Democrats from districts Donald Trump won in 2020 may face the same opponents who underperformed in 2022.

Former Army Green Beret Joe Kent (R) is seeking a rematch with first-term Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Wash.), and Ohio Republican JR Majewski is trying again to take on Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D), though first he’ll have a primary rematch with former state Rep. Craig Riedel.

There’s also quite a bit of early activity, including potential rematches, in the districts where voters chose a Republican for the House in 2022 after favoring Joe Biden for president. While taking advantage of the previous cycle’s name recognition makes sense, “the downside is that these candidates are not always perfect — we are talking about people who lost last time, after all — and those who are former members do have a voting record,” said Kyle Kondik of Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball. READ MORE from Greg Giroux.

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Senate ’24

MONTANA: Regular Playing Field
An effort to undermine the re-election prospects of Sen. Jon Tester has been sidelined in Montana’s legislature.

A state legislative committee shelved the Republican-backed measure, which would have temporarily changed state law just for next year’s US Senate election. The proposed change sought to prevent third-party candidates from appearing on the November ballot so that those who wanted to vote against the Democratic incumbent would have no choice other than the to-be-determined GOP nominee.

In a morning-after interview with Bloomberg Government, Sen. Steve Daines, the Montana Republican leading the effort to win a Senate majority for his party, said he supported the bill and recalled how partisans in an earlier cycle put money behind a Libertarian candidate only because they wanted to strengthen the options for anti-Tester voters.

Siphoning off even a small number of votes could have big repercussions again. “What happens in Montana likely will define what happens for majority control of the United States Senate,” Daines said.

So far there’s no declared Republican in that race. Rep. Matt Rosendale may try to avenge his 4-point loss to Tester in 2018. Montana attorney general Austin Knudsen “would be a really strong candidate,” Daines said, and another potential candidate is Tim Sheehy, a 37-year-old aerospace CEO and former Navy SEAL. “I hope he gets in,” Daines said.

And Tester’s on a Fund-Raising Tear
Tester raised more campaign money in the first quarter of the year than any of his Class of 2024 colleagues: $5 million. And the re-election committee of Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) took in $3.6 million.

Both are paddling hard because they have to; three years ago, Joe Biden lost Montana by 16 percentage points and he lost Ohio by 8 points to Donald Trump. — Greg Giroux

Read more: Danger-Zone Democrats Tester, Brown Raise Most in Class of ’24

Voting Law

NORTH DAKOTA: Veto Stands

Ranked-choice voting will remain a legal option in North Dakota. Gov. Gov. Doug Burgum (R) vetoed a bill to ban it, and an effort to override the veto fell short. Idaho and South Dakota enacted prohibitions on rank-your-preference election systems this year, joining Florida and Tennessee. — InForum and Ballotpedia

Ballot Question

OHIO: Constitutional Vote in a Hurry

The Ohio Senate passed bills intended to make it harder for voters to change abortion law. One of them would put a question on the ballot to require 60% supermajorities to change the state Constitution. The other would let that decision be made in an August special election. An abortion rights question might be on the November ballot, potentially becoming the first issue subject to new requirements if they’re approved in a special election. — AP

Caught Our Eye

• Mike Lindell ordered to pay $5M for losing ‘Prove Mike Wrong’ election data challenge (NBC)
• Pennsylvania county sanctioned after secretly letting a third party copy voting-machine data (AP)

Resources

• Our past coverage: BGOV Archive
• Tracking Departures in the US House and Senate
• Litigation Trackers: Loyola Law School Brennan Center
• BGOV OnPoint: US Senate Elections
• BGOV OnPoint: Gubernatorial Elections

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To contact the reporter on this story: Greg Giroux in Washington at ggiroux@bgov.com

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Katherine Rizzo at krizzo@bgov.com; Bennett Roth at broth@bgov.com