What to Know in Washington: Scramble to Succeed McConnell Begins

The three men long believed to be most likely to eventually replace Mitch McConnell as the top Republican in the Senate have spent millions of dollars creating a network of political alliances by boosting the re-election campaigns of their current or potential colleagues, the rarified pool of voters who will choose one of the most powerful Republicans in the country.

Three Republican senators are seen in Washington as most likely successors to McConnell (Ky.), who has served as the top Senate Republican since 2007 and announced yesterday he will step down as leader after the November elections. They are Senate Minority Whip John Thune (S.D.); Sen. John Cornyn (Texas), a former member of leadership and centrist negotiator; and Sen. John Barrasso (Wyo.), who as conference chair organizes regular meetings of GOP senators.

“The Three Johns,” as they’re often called, have done little to tamp down speculation about their ambition for the job when it opens. Other senators could also go for the job in a secret-ballot vote that could be decided by the narrowest of margins.

In a signal of the lengths to which aspirants for the top job in the Senate will go, Cornyn, Thune, and Barrasso have directed over $32 million toward current and potential future senators since 2019, according to a Bloomberg Government analysis of Federal Election Commission records and data managed by the Center for Responsive Politics.

Political fundraising is “going to be tremendously important” to the next leader, said Ryan Taylor, a senior vice president of public affairs at Forbes Tate Partners and a former Barrasso adviser. “It’s always a factor” in who should take the role, he said.

BGOV’s analysis examined five years of FEC records for campaigns, leadership PACs, and key joint fundraising committees linked to the three senators and tracked contributions from those entities to incumbent senators, Senate hopefuls, and party apparati responsible for supporting Senate candidates across the country. Zach C. Cohen and Jon Meltzer navigate the money trail.

Mitch McConnell—flanked by John Barrasso, John Thune, and John Cornyn—at the Capitol in 2016. Photo by Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg

SENATE REPUBLICANS will have to choose just how loyal to Donald Trump they want their next leader, following McConnell’s fraught relationship with the former president. Read more from Steven T. Dennis and Erik Wasson.

SENATE DEMOCRATS won’t miss McConnell’s policies, but in a chamber that requires 60 votes to get almost anything done, several said they’d miss McConnell’s eye for a deal. Read more from Jonathan Tamari.

MCCONNELL’S biggest legacy is his efforts to reshape the federal judiciary, the fruits of which will endure long beyond his tenure. As majority leader, McConnell pushed more than 230 of Trump’s judicial nominees through the Senate, including the three Supreme Court justices. Read more from Maeve Sheehey and Tiana Headley.

BUSINESS LOBBYISTS see potential new risks for corporate interests on the Hill when McConnell leaves his leadership position this fall amid a changing Republican Party. Read more Kate Ackley.

MCCONNELL, whenever he retires entirely, will almost certainly be succeeded by a Republican. A key figure to watch will be former Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Cameron. Read more from Greg Giroux.

BIDEN’S AGENDA

• Biden travels this morning to Brownsville, Texas, arriving shortly after 2:30 p.m.
• The president will receive a briefing at the border shortly after 3 p.m., followed by an an operational briefing from Customs and Border Protection, USCIS, and ICE shortly after 4 p.m.
• Biden will deliver remarks around 4:30 p.m. and return to the White House shortly before 10 p.m.

CONGRESS’ SCHEDULE

• The House is back at 10 a.m. to vote on short-term funding and FAA bills.
• The Senate also meets at 10 a.m. to vote on Marjorie Rollinson’s confirmation to be the IRS’s chief counsel.
• For the full detailed agenda, read BGOV’s Congress Tracker.

Shutdown Deadline Nears

Mike Johnson at the White House on Tuesday. Photo by Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images

THE HOUSE WILL VOTE THIS AFTERNOON on a stopgap funding bill after congressional leaders reached a last-minute deal yesterday to avoid a government shutdown.

The deal would provide one week of temporary funding to avert a partial shutdown Saturday and fund parts of the government through Sept. 30. The remainder of the government, including for the Defense and Homeland Security departments, would still face a potential March 23 shutdown.

That interim funding is needed because technical work remains on the package, which has been agreed to in principle. While negotiators haven’t yet agreed on spending for the remainder of the government, the temporary funds also cover those parts of government through March 22.

Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-La.) office had said without an agreement on full-year spending bills, he was prepared to allow a shutdown.

Republicans leaders are backing the deal despite a risk of backlash among conservatives who have demanded new immigration restrictions to avoid a shutdown. GOP leaders have instead chosen to hold up emergency funding for Ukraine to wring concessions from President Joe Biden.

The agreement includes funds for the departments of Agriculture, Transportation, Housing and Urban Development, Veterans Affairs and Energy, along with the FDA. The deal also includes full-year money for the departments of Interior, Commerce, and Justice — as well as the EPA — removing the possibility national parks will close.

The deal is in line with a $1.59 trillion overall spending level for fiscal year 2024 that Republican and Democratic negotiators agreed to last month. Wasson and Jack Fitzpatrick have more.

Also Happening on the Hill

Cindy Hyde-Smith at the Capitol in 2023. Photo by Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images

REPUBLICANS blocked a bill to federally protect in vitro fertilization, downplaying the effects a recent Alabama Supreme Court ruling will have on their electoral odds in November.

• Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-Miss.) blocked the bill, contending it goes “far beyond IVF” and said it would allow the genetic engineering of embryos, commercial surrogacy, and even the creation of “human-animal chimeras.”
• But Democrats doubled down on their message to voters that GOP opposition to reproductive rights will imperil women’s access to more than just abortion, sounding the alarm on potential effects on IVF, contraception and more. Read more.

LLOYD AUSTIN is set to face demands from a top Republican today to name who at the Pentagon decided to hide the defense secretary’s health issues from the president. Read more.

CONGRESS should support efforts to expand markets for local and overseas farmers as it crafts the 2024 farm bill, Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack told a Senate panel. Read more.

THE SENATE and WHITE HOUSE need to move quickly to fill a vacant seat on the National Labor Relations Board to help it work through its heavy workload, members said. Read more.

IRS chief counsel nominee Marjorie Rollinson will likely be confirmed today. Read more.

People, Power, and Politics

Donald Trump speaking outside Washington on Feb. 24. Photo by Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images

THE SUPREME COURT said it will rule on Trump’s bid for immunity from prosecution, in a historic case that will determine whether he stands trial while campaigning for the White House. Read more.

TRUMP has been barred from the Illinois ballot for the Republican presidential primary, under a judge’s ruled for his role in the Jan. 6 insurrection. A Trump spokesperson said the former president will appeal. Read more.

A NEW YORK court denied Trump’s bid to temporarily delay the state’s $454 million verdict against him, even after he said he may have to sell properties to cover the judgment. Read more.

TEXAS is pursuing a series of legal fights against the federal government that are testing the limits on how far local officials can go to shore up US borders, taking advantage of the concerns over immigration gripping the nation. Read more.

DEMOCRATS could get a boost in their efforts to retake the House next year after lawmakers in New York approved a new district map that Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) supports. Read more.

Swing State Latest

VOTERS across every major demographic group describe Biden as too old, a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll of swing state voters has found, showing that concerns about his age have permeated even the most reliable constituencies of the Democratic party.

• Overall, eight in 10 voters in crucial states said Biden was too old. In contrast, less than half of respondents said Trump was too old.
• Trump faces his own vulnerabilities with swing state voters, with a majority saying the former president is dangerous. Read more.
• Biden’s doctor said he continues to be “fit for duty” after an annual physical exam yesterday. Read more.

THE ECONOMY is on the upswing in Philadelphia, which should be good news for Biden who needs a large vote margin in the city and southeastern Pennsylvania to carry the state in November. But the party still needs to persuade voters that his administration is responsible for the rebound.

• Only 43% of Pennsylvania voters think the economy in their city or town is going in the right direction, the lowest of the seven swing states surveyed in a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll. Pennsylvania voters also rated their economy lower than voters in the other six swing states. Read more.

What Else We’re Watching

Boeing’s headquarters in Arlington, Va., on Jan. 31. Photo by Samuel Corum/Getty Images

THE JUSTICE DEPARTMENT is examining whether last month’s midair blowout of a Boeing door plug falls under the government’s deferred-prosecution agreement from 2021 with the company over two fatal crashes of its 737 Max jetliner.

• If prosecutors determine that the blowout constitutes a breach of that agreement, Boeing could face criminal liability. Read more.

A SAUDI-LED GROUP of Arab states is urging the US and allies to persuade Israel to consider a renewed plan for Palestinian statehood that they say will de-escalate tensions in the Middle East, according to several Arab officials involved in drafting the proposal. Read more.

THE US AND UK have held high-level talks over security risks that could occur if Prime Minister Rishi Sunak schedules general elections around the same time as America’s.

• Officials in Washington and London are worried Russia and others could see opportunities for hostile action elsewhere in the world if both countries are preoccupied by potential handover of power to new administrations.
• There are also fears about interference in the two elections by other foreign countries. Read more.

OIL COMPANIES are once again taking to the Supreme Court to ask justices to settle whether state court venues are appropriate to rule on issues of national greenhouse gases. Read more.

THE WHITE HOUSE wants to force airlines to improve treatment of passengers in wheelchairs and penalize those who break mobility aids, according to a new DOT proposal. Read more.

THE GOVERNMENT’S challenge to Kroger’s $24.6 billion acquisition of Albertsons tees up a novel antitrust argument: it would hurt competition among unionized workers. Read more.

THE GLOBAL SAVINGS GLUT is drying up due to aging populations, an embattled Chinese economy, and an increasingly fragmented global one.

• The result, according to some economists: A reversal of the decades-long trend toward lower interest rates as borrowers from Washington on down are forced to pay up for a dwindling supply of excess cash. Read more.

To contact the reporters on this story: Brandon Lee in Washington at blee@bgov.com; Jeannie Baumann in Washington at jbaumann@bloombergindustry.com

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Kayla Sharpe at ksharpe@bloombergindustry.com; Giuseppe Macri at gmacri@bgov.com