Migrants Settle in Blue Counties: What to Know in Washington

The recent wave of migrants has largely settled in counties that voted for Joe Biden instead of declining red counties. But first, you should know:

• Donald Trump is back on the campaign trail and hoping to use Sunday’s shooting attempt to gain momentum.
• Senators want to give the Secret Service more funding to protect presidential candidates.
• Ohio’s top court upheld most of a Republican-drafted redistricting measure that will appear on the state’s Nov. 5 ballot.

Migrants Settling in Blue Counties That Voted for Biden

Immigration is a prominent issue in this year’s presidential campaign — especially its effects on the economy, labor, and resource needs of swing-state cities and towns poised to have outsize impact on the election.

Bloomberg News analyzed immigration court data obtained by researchers at Syracuse University showing where the 1.8 million asylum seekers and refugees who landed in the US in 2023 took up residence.

In battleground states that will decide the election, about 72% of migrants in 2023 went to Biden counties while less than a third went to Trump counties. Counties that voted for Biden four years ago are home to roughly 60% of the overall US population.

Swing states received 12% of all migrants, with most going to blue counties like Philadelphia and Gwinnett, which is outside Atlanta. Migrants are headed to places with growing local economies, bolstering the labor force in places already thriving. In swing states, 85% of migrants settled in places that saw GDP growth from 2019 to 2022.

Few migrants settled in counties that saw GDP decline, the vast majority of which were carried by Donald Trump in 2020 and badly need more workers to stem local economic and population declines.

These newcomers are unlikely to become citizens before the election. But their arrival will nonetheless reverberate in the presidential contest, and their journeys don’t always unfold in the ways partisan campaign cliches suggest. Read More

Editor’s Picks

Democrats Aren’t Sure Which Kamala Harris They’re Going to Get

Kamala Harris’ sudden ascension to Democratic presidential nominee has energized the party faithful. It’s also stoked quiet anxiety among Democrats across the ideological spectrum about what she would do if elected president—a feeling that’s particularly acute among progressives, who aren’t certain she’ll support their economic agenda the way Joe Biden has.

Trump Unveils Crypto Project, Says US Should Dominate Sector

Donald Trump headlined an event billed as the unveiling of a crypto platform promoted by the Republican nominee and his sons, putting the spotlight on a niche sector of digital assets with a history of controversy.

Fed Governor Seen as Potential Chair Won’t Welcome Trump’s Input

Former President Donald Trump wants the White House to have a say on interest rates. The Federal Reserve governor seen as a possible candidate to lead the central bank in a second Trump term is vehemently opposed to the idea.

Harris Cites Trump’s Abortion Stance in Death of Georgia Woman

Vice President Kamala Harris said Donald Trump was responsible for triggering the events that led to the death of a Georgia woman that one report called the first officially preventable fatality related to abortion bans enacted across several US states.

Ohio Justices Approve Most of GOP’s Restricting Ballot Wording

A divided Ohio Supreme Court late Monday approved most of the GOP-drafted ballot language for a measure that would change the way the state draws the lines for legislative and congressional districts.

Trump Seeks Momentum After Gunman Incident

Trump is poised to capitalize on the second attempt on his life, using the incident to try and regain the political momentum Vice President Kamala Harris is riding.

The attempt came at a weak moment for the Trump campaign. Allies were attempting to tamp down post-debate narratives about Harris’ strong showing, controversy over Trump’s unfounded comments about immigrants eating pets and a new feud with pop star Taylor Swift.

Instead, he can campaign unscathed by what he casts as evil forces looking to take him down. Trump will continue his campaign schedule this week as planned, according to two people familiar. He plans rallies in Michigan and New York today and Wednesday, a speech to a pro-Israeli group in Washington, and then a rally in North Carolina on Saturday to cap off the week.

Polls show Trump and Harris virtually tied and within the margin-of-error in major battleground states. Despite pundits and polls showing Harris won last week’s debate, the forum didn’t alter the dynamics of the race and the two candidates are still vying for support from a tiny sliver of the electorate that remains undecided. Read More

• The head of the FBI’s Miami field office said several requests were sent to companies regarding suspect Ryan Routh’s phone and social media accounts. Many posts relate to recruiting fighters for Ukraine, which is also part of the investigation. The bureau is interviewing Routh’s friends and family in Hawaii and North Carolina. Read More
• The Secret Service needs more resources “between now and the inauguration,” including more money for overtime, drones, and reimbursements for other law enforcement agencies, Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) told reporters Monday. Read More

Read BGOV’s Congress Tracker for the complete breakdown of lawmaker’s daily legislative agenda and the politics driving it.

What Else We’re Reading

Ted Cruz’s Top Aide Testified in Justice’s Paxton Bribery Probe

Federal prosecutors in Texas had drafted bribery and obstruction charges against state Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) before the US Justice Department took over the case in early 2023, according to a person familiar with the investigation.

Moving Carbon Dioxide to Oceans Hampered by Outdated Permitting

Laws that have protected marine ecosystems for decades are an impediment for companies trying to obtain permits to enhance the ocean’s ability to absorb more carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, say advocates of the approach.

ANALYSIS: Biden’s Drug Price Program Hangs on Nature of Medicare

A trio of cases headed for oral argument in the Third Circuit will likely clarify that the voluntary nature of Medicare prevents drugmakers from toppling a landmark government drug price-setting program.

Plans’ Status Quo Unlikely to Satisfy Mental Health Parity Rule

A new federal rule will spur employer-sponsored health plans to take a broad look at how they provide mental health benefits compared to those for medical and surgical treatments to ensure they’re meeting strengthened requirements.

Palantir, Shield AI Seek More Agile Funding For New Weapons

Representatives from Shield AI Inc., Palantir Technologies Inc., Saildrone Inc., Skydio Inc., and Applied Intuition told lawmakers that battlefield technology changes too fast for the Pentagon’s rigid two-year funding plans.

Biden Fights Smugglers Trafficking Climate-Warming Refrigerants

The Biden administration has launched a new initiative to crack down on smugglers at US borders and ports. The concern isn’t drugs or counterfeit goods, though; it’s a refrigerant that’s also a dangerous greenhouse gas.

Trump’s Banker Brawls With Whistleblowers, Marxists and Shorts

Gregory Garrabrants stands out on Wall Street, not just because he’s among the industry’s best-paid chief executive officers. Three of his most operatic clashes — with whistleblowers, short sellers and a school that costs up to $26,330 a year — show what he’s willing to do. It’s worked so far, but now the bank faces a reckoning.

US Has No Imminent Plans for Updated Cease-Fire Proposal: CNN

US national security advisers have no imminent plans to present President Joe Biden with an updated proposal in the Israel-Hamas war cease-fire negotiations, CNN reports, citing two senior administration officials it didn’t identify.

To contact the reporters on this story: Giuseppe Macri in Washington at gmacri@bgov.com; Jeannie Baumann in Washington at jbaumann@bloombergindustry.com

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Kayla Sharpe at ksharpe@bloombergindustry.com