Biden Plummets in Leaked Poll: What to Know in Washington

Biden Plummets in Leaked Democratic Polling Memo, Puck Says

President Joe Biden’s favorability numbers plummeted after his poor debate performance last week in “the largest single-week drop” in nearly three years, according to a leaked memo from a pollster that was published Tuesday by the news site Puck.

• “Underpinning the decline is an increase in already-high concerns about the President’s age, and a growing split among Democrats about what should happen with his candidacy,” says the memo from Open Labs, the research arm of Future Forward, a leading Democratic super political action committee.

The super PAC has been tapped by the Biden campaign as its vehicle to accept unlimited donations. Biden’s debate performance against Donald Trump last week cemented concerns about the oldest US president seeking a second term at age 81.

Biden plans to meet with Democratic governors today and travel to two battleground states this week before a sit-down TV interview with ABC News’ George Stephanopoulos — the president’s first since the debate — in a bid to calm anxiety over his reelection prospects.

Several alternate Democrats — including Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, California Gov. Gavin Newsom, and Vice President Kamala Harris — all now perform better against Trump than Biden does, the memo says, when the analysis is adjusted to account for their lower name recognition. Read More

• Read More: Harris Top Choice to Replace Biden If He Steps Aside

Biden blamed travel plans that took him to France and Italy in the weeks ahead of the debate for his poor performance. The jet lag explanation came after Biden’s advisers had previously chalked up his shaky performance to a cold. Read More

BIDEN’S SCHEDULE
1:30 p.m. — Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre will hold a briefing.
4:45 p.m. — The president delivers remarks at a Medal of Honor Ceremony at the White House.
6:30 p.m. — Biden will meet with Democratic Governors at the White House.

CONGRESS’ AGENDA

• For highlights when Congress returns next week, read BGOV’s Congress Tracker.

Politics & Probes

Jan. 6 Rioters to Request Relief After Supreme Court Ruling

Lawyers for Jan. 6 Capitol rioters are gearing up for a fight to wipe out convictions and lower sentences, after the US Supreme Court narrowed a criminal obstruction law used in more than 200 cases.

Virginia Certifies McGuire Win Over Bob Good, AP Says

Virginia certifies the victory of John McGuire, a former Navy SEAL officer, over Republican incumbent Bob Good in the primary for Virginia’s 5th Congressional District, AP reports

Why Trump’s Hush Money Conviction Is in Legal Limbo: QuickTake

Donald Trump’s conviction on 34 felony counts for falsifying business records to cover up a sex scandal is now up in the air because of the Supreme Court’s landmark ruling July 1 on presidential immunity.

BGOV OnPoint: Emergency Bridge Funding Scrutinized by Congress

Lawmakers are weighing a Biden administration request for nearly $4 billion to rebuild Baltimore’s collapsed Francis Scott Key Bridge and pay for other disaster recovery efforts.

While there’s bipartisan support in Congress to help rebuild the bridge, some Republicans oppose President Joe Biden’s pledge to have the federal government pay 100% of the replacement costs. Lawmakers could attach the aid money to a stopgap spending bill in September, but key disaster relief funds may run out of cash before then. Read More

The Pentagon Has a Huawei Problem

The Pentagon has a problem: How does one of the world’s largest employers avoid doing business with companies that rely on the world’s largest telecommunications provider?

The Defense Department is saying that it can’t, sparking a push for an exemption from a 2019 law barring it from contracting with anyone who uses Huawei equipment and provoking a conflict with Congress that defense officials warn could jeopardize national security. The department’s rationale is that Huawei is so firmly entrenched in the systems of countries where it does business that finding alternatives would be impossible.

So far, the House and Senate committees in charge of the legislation have declined to include a waiver in the 2025 National Defense Authorization Act. That’s a reflection of growing anti-China sentiment and a frustration that Huawei has managed to deflect the impact of US financial sanctions.

The Pentagon’s argument doesn’t hold sway with some China hawks, who argue that the Defense Department must move more quickly and use its sway as a major buyer to force change. However, Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.), chair of the chamber’s intelligence committee, acknowledged a waiver may be necessary, but declined to say when or if that might happen. Read More

Also in the News

AI Congressional Action Threatened by Supreme Court Chevron Blow

Congress has historically struggled to reach consensus on tech regulation, and the blockbuster Supreme Court decision makes it harder for the body to establish and continuously update rules to keep pace with AI.

Chevron Questions Answered: What’s Next After High Court Ruling

The Supreme Court on Friday eliminated a 40-year-old precedent known as Chevron deference, a doctrine that empowered federal regulators to interpret unclear laws. Reporters Robert Iafolla and Courtney Rozen offer insight into what comes next for the administration, the courts, regulated industry, and their lawyers.

Biden, Netanyahu Due to Meet Later This Month in Washington: CNN

President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are expected to meet in Washington in several weeks, CNN reports, citing an unidentified person.

US Allies Allege China Is Developing Attack Drones for Russia

Chinese and Russian companies are developing an attack drone similar to an Iranian model deployed in Ukraine, European officials familiar with the matter said, a sign that Beijing may be edging closer to providing the sort of lethal aid that western officials have warned against.

Venezuela Welcomes Russian Warship as Maduro Seeks New US Talks

A Russian warship arrived on Venezuela’s coast hours after Nicolás Maduro announced renewed talks between his government and the US ahead of a presidential election this month.

Programming Note

This newsletter will not publish on July 4. We’ll resume our regular publication schedule on Friday, July 5.

To contact the reporters on this story: Brandon Lee in Washington at blee@bgov.com; Jeannie Baumann in Washington at jbaumann@bloombergindustry.com

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Kayla Sharpe at ksharpe@bloombergindustry.com; Giuseppe Macri at gmacri@bgov.com