What’s Driving Voter Decisions in Congressional Elections?
The results of the 2024 congressional and presidential elections will significantly influence policy decisions in 2025 and beyond, including negotiating key provisions from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.
Many competitive U.S. Senate races are in states that are also expected to be presidential swing states, such as Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. There is also overlap between competitive House districts and presidential battleground states – with California and New York having a disproportionate number of competitive races.
The Senate map favors Republicans, and Democrats need a net gain of only four seats to win control of the House. Both chambers could flip in opposite partisan directions from the current Congress.
This article explores current election landscapes and voter sentiment, including high-profile ballot initiatives as well as the impact the general election will have on down-ballot races.
What are high-profile ballot initiatives in the 2024 election cycle?
Abortion
Since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022, voters in seven states – California, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan, Montana, Ohio, and Vermont – have sided with abortion rights supporters on ballot measures. This year, abortion questions will be on the ballot in at least eight states: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Maryland, Missouri, Nevada, New York, and South Dakota.
Immigration
In spite of opposition from immigration advocacy groups, Arizona’s Supreme Court ruled that a proposal allowing local law enforcement to arrest migrants near the Mexican border will appear on the state’s ballot in the 2024 election cycle. U.S. law generally allows migrants arriving at the border – including those who would otherwise be subject to expedited removal processes – to claim asylum and remain in the U.S. while their claim is adjudicated. However, the large number of migrants at the border has led to tightened eligibility and movement toward new regulations.
Minimum wage
Inflation-wary voters in as many as six states will consider minimum wage boosts and paid sick leave on November’s ballots. Californians will weigh in on increasing the minimum wage to $18 per hour, Alaskans will vote on a $15 minimum wage plus sick leave, and voters in Arizona and Massachusetts could cast their ballots in favor of new pay structures for tipped workers.
Top policy issues to pay attention to in 2024
Senior Reporter Greg Giroux and Deputy News Director Loren Duggan discuss noteworthy ballot measures that could affect voter turnout in 2024 as well as broader policy issues that are dominating this election cycle. See our full 2024 Congressional Election webinar for further election analysis and forecasting.
How does top-of-ticket voting affect down-ballot choices?
Consistent with previous election cycles, where voters cast their ballot for the same party in presidential and congressional races, 95 out of 100 senators are from the same party as the presidential nominee who carried their states in the 2020 election. While many voters skip down-ballot choices altogether, those who do fill out an entire ticket often base their decision on party affiliation, which can reinforce partisan control within a jurisdiction.
How common is split ticket voting?
Split-ticket voting is rare. In the 2020 election, every state but Maine voted for the same party for president and Senate.
There are 22 House districts where lawmakers are of the opposite party to which presidential candidate the district chose in 2020. At the start of the current 118th Congress, there were only 18 Republicans from districts President Joe Biden won in 2020. The 17 of those Republicans who remain are all seeking reelection in 2024, including one whose New York district was redrawn to be narrowly pro-Donald Trump.
In 2022, five Democrats won in districts that preferred in 2020 Trump: Mary Peltola of Alaska, Jared Golden of Maine, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez of Washington, Marcy Kaptur of Ohio, and Matt Cartwright of Pennsylvania. Many of these members are putting political daylight between themselves and the top of the ticket – whether it was Biden before or Kamala Harris now – in the hopes of being reelected.
How ticket-splitting influences elections
Senior Reporter Greg Giroux explains the decline of ticket splitting and its impact on toss-up races – both historically and today. Learn more about voting trends by watching our full 2024 Congressional Election webinar on demand.