What’s Driving Voter Decisions in Congressional Elections?

The results of the 2024 congressional and presidential elections will significantly influence policy decisions in 2025 and beyond, including negotiating key provisions from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.

Many competitive U.S. Senate races are in states that are also expected to be presidential swing states, such as Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. There is also overlap between competitive House districts and presidential battleground states – with California and New York having a disproportionate number of competitive races.

The Senate map favors Republicans, and Democrats need a net gain of only four seats to win control of the House. Both chambers could flip in opposite partisan directions from the current Congress.

This article explores current election landscapes and voter sentiment, including high-profile ballot initiatives as well as the impact the general election will have on down-ballot races.

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