What to Know in Washington: Democrats to Rely on Youth in 2020
By Zachary Sherwood
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The election prospects for Democrats in 2020 will turn on whether the party can keep fanning the fires that drove young voters to the ballot box last year.
A record jump in the turnout rate for young voters — those ages 18 to 29 — helped Democrats retake control of the House in the midterm elections. Several signs point to that voting trend continuing in 2020 with President Donald Trump on the ballot and the increasingly bitter political atmosphere driving up interest in the election among all voters.
“It is not crazy to think that youth turnout will be above 50% among people under 30 in 2020,” David Nickerson, a political science professor at Temple University. “If that ends up being right, then the Democrats are likely to gain a few votes.”
Although young voters typically cast ballots at rates well behind their elders, any increase could make a significant difference. And it’s not just the turnout — it’s where those voters turn out. In five states, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, the winning margin in the 2016 presidential election was 1.5 percentage points or less.
The advantage of a bigger youth vote likely would accrue to Democrats. Polls show young voters are increasingly aligned with the party on issues they regard as important. A Harvard Institute of Politics Public Opinion poll of young Americans in April found that 48% of young adults believe the nation is on the wrong track and 68% disapprove of Trump. A majority in the poll voted Democratic in the 2016 election and ranked among their top concerns promoting human rights, curbing gun violence and fighting climate change. Read more from Jarrell Dillard.
Photographer: Patrick T. Fallon/Bloomberg
Voters at a polling station in California.
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Trade Talks
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What Else to Know Today
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To contact the reporter on this story: Zachary Sherwood in Washington at zsherwood@bgov.com
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Brandon Lee at blee@bgov.com; Loren Duggan at lduggan@bgov.com
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