Balance of Power: Republicans Retain Majority in the House

Republicans held on to their narrow majority in the U.S. House, giving Donald Trump and his party unified control of the elected branches of government and limiting potential curbs on the incoming president’s power.

The GOP will hold at least 218 seats in House starting January, while Democrats have 212 seats.

[Download our exclusive Post-Election Guide for details on the outcomes, as well as opportunities to influence change.]

Current balance of power for the 118^th Congress

The three vacant seats have been held by one Republican and two Democrats. Each party is likely to maintain control of those respective seats — meaning that Democrats need a net gain of four seats to win a majority of the lower chamber.

As noted above, the current balance of power is 220 R vs. 212 D. The grey circles reflect the WI-8 seat vacated April 24 by Mike Gallagher (R), the TX-18 vacancy caused by the July 19 death of Shelia Jackson Lee (D), and the NJ-9 vacancy caused by the Aug. 21 death of Bill Pascrell (D).

How will redistricting affect the 2024 House race?

After rounds of redistricting that were either ordered by a court or greenlit by one, several states are using different congressional maps for the 2024 election than they did in 2022:

• Alabama
• Georgia
• Louisiana
• New York
• North Carolina

Democrats in Alabama and Louisiana are favored to gain an additional seat. Similarly, New York Democrats might recoup a seat or two in the House. But those gains could be offset by expected GOP wins in North Carolina, where Republicans are expected to go from seven seats to 10 and have a chance at winning an 11th seat.

What are the key House races to watch in 2024?

Overall, the universe of competitive races is narrow. The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter has identified 43 competitive districts – that’s just 10% of the 435 total congressional races.

Of these 43 races:

• 27 are considered toss-ups, which are considered the most competitive because either candidate has a good chance of winning.
• 16 races lean Democrat or Republican. These races are slightly less competitive than toss-ups, since one party has an advantage over the other.
• 4 races are open seats, meaning those incumbents have chosen to retire or seek another office rather than run for reelection.

Competitive House races

To date, there are 43 House races considered toss-ups or slightly leaning toward either party, according to the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter.

During the 2022 midterms, there were 15 races in which the winner prevailed by fewer than 2 percentage points. This election cycle, seven of those 15 races are rematches, where the incumbents are bracing for close races against the same challengers once again.

After narrowly winning her 2022 race in Colorado’s third district, Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-CO) is now seeking to win election in Colorado’s more heavily Republican fourth district, which former Rep. Ken Buck won by 24 points in 2022.

[Download our exclusive 2024 Elections Outlook for details on the closest races and toss-up seats.]

How will the 2024 presidential election impact House races?

There are just 22 districts that voted for one party for president in 2020 and the opposing party for Congress. That means 95% of the 435 House districts voted for the same party for president and the House.

The following sections detail races where ticket-splitting occurred in 2020 — many of which are considered toss-ups or lean races this election cycle.

House Democrats elected from districts Trump won in 2020

Five House Democrats were elected in congressional districts that voted for Donald Trump in 2020:

1. Mary Peltola (AK-At Large) – Trump won by a 10.1% margin
2. Jared Golden (ME-2) – Trump won by a 6.1% margin
3. Marie Gluesenkamp-Perez (WA-3) – Trump won by a 4.2% margin
4. Matt Cartwright (PA-8) – Trump won by a 2.9% margin
5. Marcy Kaptur (OH-9) – Trump won by a 2.9% margin

House Republicans elected from districts Biden won in 2020

Seventeen House Republicans won in pro-Biden districts in 2020. Most have competitive races this election cycle, most notably Anthony D’Esposito of Nassau County, New York. His district voted for Biden by more than 14 points in 2020. However, in 2022, D’Esposito’s district and others in New York shifted to the right.

1. Anthony D’Esposito (NY-4) – Biden won by a 14.5% margin
2. David Valadao (CA-22) – Biden won by a 12.9% margin
3. Mike Garcia (CA-27) – Biden won by a 12.4% margin
4. John Duarte (CA-13) – Biden won by a 10.9% margin
5. Mike Lawler (NY-17) – Biden won by a 10% margin
6. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (OR-5) – Biden won by an 8.8% margin
7. Brandon Williams (NY-22) – Biden won by a 7.4% margin
8. Don Bacon (NE-2) – Biden won by a 6.3% margin
9. Michelle Steel (CA-45) – Biden won by a 6.2% margin
10. Marc Molinaro (NY-19) – Biden won by a 4.6% margin
11. Brian Fitzpatrick (PA-1) – Biden won by a 4.6% margin
12. Tom Kean (NJ-7) – Biden won by a 3.7% margin
13. Young Kim (CA-40) – Biden won by a 1.8% margin
14. Jen Kiggans (VA-2) – Biden won by a 1.7% margin
15. David Schweikert (AZ-1) – Biden won by a 1.4% margin
16. Nick LaLota (NY-1) – Biden won by a 0.2% margin
17. Juan Ciscomani (AZ-6) – Biden won by a 0.1% margin

Top of the ticket: A hinderance or help for battleground House seats?

While ticket splitting is rare, Senior Reporter Greg Giroux discusses House members who came out victorious in opposing party districts. Watch our full recap video on 2024 congressional races.

What policy issues are shaping 2024 House races?

Abortion, inflation, and immigration have emerged as topics of intense debate in downballot races. Below details how discourse is shaping up.

Abortion

Following the overturning of Roe v. Wade in 2022, abortion policies have been left up to the states, leading to a patchwork of laws. To date, seven states have sided with abortion rights supporters on ballot measures.

During this election cycle, eight additional states will have abortion rights on their ballots: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Maryland, Missouri, Nevada, New York, and South Dakota.

Depending on the outcome of the 2024 election, Congress could pass federal legislation to either protect or restrict abortion rights across the country.

Inflation

House Republicans have criticized Democrats for voting for the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan stimulus package in 2021 as well as the the 2022 climate-health-tax-package, which they passed using the reconciliation process without a single Republican vote.

GOP candidates claim that these laws have exacerbated inflation rather than tempered it, and many disagree with the economic impact of such provisions as the the bill’s green subsidies. In response, Democrats argue that the law addresses key drivers of inflation by lowering the cost of health care, reducing the federal deficit, and encouraging clean energy production.

Immigration

Immigration enforcement has become a major issue in the 2024 election, but a key element of the debate — funding for detention centers — is tied up in broader negotiations over government funding.

By passing a short-term spending measure through Dec. 20, Congress has punted the question of how much funding to provide for Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) custody operations until after the election.

House Republicans earlier this year passed a Homeland Security Department funding measure that would provide $4.1 billion for ICE custody operations in fiscal year 2025, 43% more than requested by the Biden administration.